Background: This study examines the clinical utility of increased neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) as an indicator of mortality and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) in severe sepsis and septic shock.
Methods: We designed a prospective cohort study in an intensive care unit, and 123 patients with severe sepsis or septic shock were included. Data were used to determine a relationship between NGAL and the development of MODS and mortality. These associations were determined by the Mann-Whitney U test, log-rank test, Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, and plotting the receiver operating characteristic curve.
Results: Patients with high NGAL (75th percentile) had increased risk of mortality and MODS compared with patients with low NGAL (log-rank test, P < 0.05). There were 39 patients (32%) with mortality during follow-up at 12 months, 10 patients (8%) with MODS on day 1, and 37 patients (30%) on day 7. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve showed that high NGAL could predict mortality (0.6385) during intensive care unit stay. After adjustment for confounding risk factors chosen by backward elimination by Cox regression analysis, high NGAL remained an independent predictor of mortality and MODS (hazard ratios, 2.128 [95% confidence interval, 1.078-4.203; P = 0.030] and 1.896 [95% confidence interval, 1.012-3.552; P = 0.046], respectively).
Conclusions: High plasma NGAL independently predicts mortality and MODS in severe sepsis and septic shock.