ArticlesBreast and cervical cancer in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis
Section snippets
Background
Breast and cervical cancer are important reproductive health problems for women.1 Programmes to address the burden of both cancers have featured prominently in the discussions leading up to the UN High-level Meeting on Non-communicable Diseases.2, 3, 4 Reports in the media have focused on steady increases in breast cancer deaths in both the developing and developed world.5, 6, 7, 8, 9 Increasing policy attention to these diseases is in part fuelled by the potential of health systems to reduce
Methods
Our analytical strategy can be divided into four components: database development, modelling MI ratios, estimation of trends in mortality by age, and estimation of trends in incidence. We incorporated different data sources in a standardised approach to use all available information for every country (figure 1).
Results
Overall, the number of breast cancer cases has steadily increased by a factor of 2·6 from 641 000 (95% uncertainty intervals [UI] 610 000–750 000) cases to 1 643 000 (1 421 000–1 782 000) cases—an annual increase between 1980 and 2010 of 3·1%. For cervical cancer, the trend is less pronounced, increasing from 378 000 (256 000–489 000) to 454 000 (318 000–620 000)—an average annual increase of 0·6% during the same period. More than two-thirds of cases of breast cancer in 2010 were in women aged
Discussion
Worldwide, the incidence of breast cancer has increased at an annual rate of 3·1% and mortality from breast cancer has increased at an annual rate of 1·8%. Increases in the absolute number of cases and deaths are driven by the interaction of three distinct reasons: rising population numbers in women of at-risk age, population ageing such that the median age is rising in most regions, and changes in age-specific incidence and death rates. Cumulative incidence, which is affected only by changes
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