The influence of social, demographic and economic factors on fertility trends in Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A longitudinal time trend analysis-1980-2021

Sultan A. Meo; Narmeen Shaikh; Anusha S. Meo

doi:10.15537/smj.2024.45.9.20240437

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Figure 1
- Summary of the demographic, social, and economic factors.
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Figure 2
- Total fertility rate from 1980-2021 for Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
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Figure 3
- Total fertility rate from 1980-2021 for Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

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Table 1

- The demographic, social, and economic factors.

Demographic Factors	Source / References
Total fertility rate (TFR) births per woman	World Bank Database⁹
Total population	World Bank Database¹⁰
Life Expectancy at Birth (years)	World Bank Database¹¹
Crude death rate (CDR) (per 1000)	Our World in Data¹²
Social factors
Human development index (HDI)	United Nations Development Program¹³
Literacy rate (%)	Our World in Data¹⁴
Female Labor Force (%)	World Bank Database¹⁵
Unemployment (% of the total labor force)	World Bank Database¹⁶
Economic factors
Gross domestic product (GDP) (US Dollars)	World Bank Database¹⁷
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)	World Bank Database¹⁸
Urbanization (%)	World Bank Database¹⁹

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Table 2

- Summary of descriptive analysis of total fertility rate and sociodemographic variables.

Variables	Country	Mean±Standard deviation		Percentage change
Variables	Country	1980-2000	2001-2021	1980 to 2021
Total fertility rate (births per woman)	Bahrain	3.73 ±0.65	2.22±0.30	-62.28%
	Kuwait	3.69 ±0.88	2.34±0.23	-60.86%
	Oman	6.39 ± 1.46	2.98±0.26	-67.60%
	Qatar	4.21±0.74	2.21±0.44	-67.33
	Saudi Arabia	5.78±1.02	2.94±0.422	-66.22%
	UAE	4.34±1.05	1.83±0.42	-75.45%
Total population	Bahrain	525646 ±109421	1174661±261470	303.55%
	Kuwait	1771250± 211077	3199362±883259	184.50%
	Oman	1753902±453972	3407556±901898	344.29%
	Qatar	444746±104992	1785051±785418	868.91%
	Saudi Arabia	15907586±3612621	29560402±4741773	253.44%
	UAE	1969123±686977	7248666±2258096	823.54%
Crude death rate (per 1000)	Bahrain	3.17 ± 0.35	2.15±0.22	-35.48%
	Kuwait	5.50 ± 2.38	2.68±0.44	-64.53%
	Oman	2.47±0.32	1.45±0.45	-59.65%
	Qatar	2.38±0.46	2.01±0.38	-17.18%
	Saudi Arabia	5.23±1.48	2.73±0.30	-65.49%
	UAE	2.84±0.46	1.31±0.41	-52.11%
Life expectancy (years)	Bahrain	72.95±1.29	78.33±1.33	11.20%
	Kuwait	74.22±1.89	78.14±1.20	11.84%
	Oman	68.71±3.94	75.72±1.76	20.01%
	Qatar	73.38±1.31	78.31±1.94	11.96%
	Saudi Arabia	68.47±2.99	75.71±1.37	22.71%
	UAE	71.68±1.51	77.95±1.51	14.86%
Literacy rate (%)	Bahrain	76.88±10.08	89.42±4.07	--
	Kuwait	73.47±5.51	94.90±1.20	--
	Oman	--	89.86±5.79	--
	Qatar	79.45±5.39	95.04±2.77	--
	Saudi Arabia	75.09±6.03	92.55±6.59	--
	UAE	--	95.31±4.58	--
Unemployment (% of the total labor force)	Bahrain	1.14±0.08	1.19±0.17	--
	Kuwait	0.76±0.08	1.97±0.65	--
	Oman	4.28±0.09	3.61±0.91	--
	Qatar	0.87±0.00	0.44±0.31	--
	Saudi Arabia	5.96±1.15	5.76±0.56	--
	UAE	1.92±.19	2.62±0.58	--
Urbanization (%)	Bahrain	87.73±0.79	88.81±0.40	4.09%
	Kuwait	97.74±1.02	99.99±0.02	5.51%
	Oman	63.64±8.43	77.75±5.45	83.01%
	Qatar	92.71±2.51	98.28±0.91	11.09%
	Saudi Arabia	75.21±4.33	82.30±1.37	28.31%
	UAE	79.45±0.74	84.26±2.07	8.16%
Labor force – females (%)	Bahrain	31.88 ±2.02	41.54±2.61	--
	Kuwait	42.76 ± 1.33	47.36±1.70	--
	Oman	22.95±0.59	27.39±2.46	--
	Qatar	46.87±1.05	52.51±4.97	--
	Saudi Arabia	15.13±0.80	20.80±4.44	--
	UAE	31.55±1.30	44.78±7.74	--
GDP per capita (current USD)	Bahrain	8933.25±1202.39	21344.66±4492.20	216.84%
	Kuwait	13679.24±3339.13	35251.04±10901.49	68.61%
	Oman	6348.25±792.68	17451.38±5348.95	231.84%
	Qatar	18595.82±4867.35	63374.19±21315.62	136.93%
	Saudi Arabia	8876.70±3136.82	18138.50±5537.25	50.31%
	UAE	29162.98±6505.06	40582.13±5628.26	3.11%
Inflation	Bahrain	1.69±3.50	1.57±1.64	-115.79%
	Kuwait	3.53±3.82	2.87±1.68	-50.72%
	Oman	1.60±4.28	2.07±2.93	-85.00%
	Qatar	3.37±2.25	3.22±5.24	-66.18%
	Saudi Arabia	0.64±2.33	2.43±2.74	-29.55%
	UAE	4.20±2.42	3.20±3.79	-98.02%
Human development index (HDI)	Bahrain	0.74±0.02	0.83±0.04	--
	Kuwait	0.74±0.04	0.81±0.02	--
	Oman	0.70±0.00	0.79±0.04	--
	Qatar	0.78±0.01	0.84±0.02	--
	Saudi Arabia	0.72±0.01	0.81±0.04	--
	UAE	0.75±0.02	0.85±0.05	--

NB: “Unemployment (%),” “Literacy rate,” “Labor force – females (%)’ and “Human development index” have unavailable/missing data from 1980-1990 and therefore data for the 40-year percent change from 1980 to 2021 could not be calculated. The literacy rate for Oman had no data available before 2003, and for United Arab Emirates (UAE), only one value was available from 1980-2000; therefore, no mean was calculated for 1980-2000 for both countries. USD: United States Dollars

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Table 3

- The correlation between fertility rates and sociodemographic variables.

Country	TFR rate x Variable	Correlation coefficient	2-tailed significance level
Bahrain	TFR x Total population	-0.989^**	<0.001
	TFR x Crude death rate	0.932^**	<0.001
	TFR x Life expectancy	-0.973^**	<0.001
	TFR x Literacy rate	-1.000^**	<0.001
	TFR x Unemployment	-0.434^**	0.012
	TFR x Urbanization (%)	-0.944^**	<0.001
	TFR x Labor force - Female	-0.980^**	<0.001
	TFR x GDP per capita	-0.909^**	<0.001
	TFR x Inflation	0.054	0.736
	TFR x Human development index (HDI)	-0.964^**	<0.001
Kuwait	TFR x Total population	-0.864^**	<0.001
	TFR x Crude death rate	0.897^**	<0.001
	TFR x Life expectancy	-0.957^**	<0.001
	TFR x Literacy rate	-0.956^**	<0.001
	TFR x Unemployment	-0.934^**	<0.001
	TFR x Urbanization (%)	-0.943^**	<0.001
	TFR x Labor force - Female	-0.921^**	<0.001
	TFR x GDP per capita	-0.811^**	<0.001
	TFR x Inflation	0.075	0.639
	TFR x HDI	-0.953^**	<0.001
Oman	TFR x Total population	-0.951^**	<0.001
	TFR x Crude death rate	0.905^**	<0.001
	TFR x Life Expectancy	-0.895^**	<0.001
	TFR x Literacy rate	-0.371	0.468
	TFR x Unemployment	0.526^**	0.002
	TFR x Urbanization (%)	-0.928^**	<0.001
	TFR x Labor force - Female	-0.861^**	<0.001
	TFR x GDP per capita	-0.826^**	<0.001
	TFR x Inflation	-0.064	0.688
	TFR x HDI	-0.543^**	0.009
Qatar	TFR x Total population	-0.996^**	<0.001
	TFR x Crude death rate	0.568^**	<0.001
	TFR x Life expectancy	-0.987^**	<0.001
	TFR x Literacy rate	-1.000^**	<0.001
	TFR x Unemployment	0.909^**	<0.001
	TFR x Urbanization (%)	-0.999^**	<0.001
	TFR x Labor force - Female	-0.829^**	<0.001
	TFR x GDP per capita	-0.775^**	<0.001
	TFR x Inflation	0.306^*	0.049
	TFR x HDI	-0.982^**	<0.001
Saudi Arabia	TFR x Total population	-1.000^**	<0.001
	TFR x Crude death rate	0.927^**	<0.001
	TFR x Life Expectancy	-0.992^**	<0.001
	TFR x Literacy rate	-1.000^**	<0.001
	TFR x Unemployment	0.004	0.983
	TFR x Urbanization (%)	-1.000^**	<0.001
	TFR x Labor Force - Female	-0.979^**	<0.001
	TFR x GDP per capita	-0.715^**	<0.001
	TFR x Inflation	-0.291	0.062
	TFR x Human development index (HDI)	-1.000^**	<0.001
United Arab Emirates	TFR x Total population	-0.996^**	<0.001
	TFR x Crude death rate	0.908^**	<0.001
	TFR x Life expectancy	-0.997^**	<0.001
	TFR x Literacy rate	-0.800	0.200
	TFR x Unemployment	-0.361^*	0.046
	TFR x Urbanization (%)	-0.792^**	<0.001
	TFR x Labor force - Female	-0.993^**	<0.001
	TFR x GDP per capita	-0.605^**	<0.001
	TFR x Inflation	0.462^**	0.002
	TFR x HDI	-0.994^**	<0.001

A negative/inverse correlation indicates the increase in one variable with a decrease in the other variable. A positive correlation indicates an increase/decrease of both variables in the same direction.